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Past Bear-Market Rallies
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The great derpression and "the lost decade" in Japan experienced many market rallies
Goldman Sachs , May 15, 2009
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Rethinking the Financial Network
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In the present financial crisis the flight is of capital, not humans. Yet the scale and contagious
consequences may be no less damaging.
Bank of England, April 2009 , Andrew G Haldane
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Dickens and the Business Cycle: The Victorian Way of Debt
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The fund promised high and unwavering annual returns, but you had to know someone to get in on it. And that was really all it took to attract credulous investors, that and the sterling reputation of the banker behind it, a financier revered in privileged circles as “the Man of the Age.”
NY Times, 28.03.2009
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US bank deposits swell as retail investors flee market volatility
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US retails invesors poured close to USD 250 bn into bank accounts in the first months of this year...
This is more than the whole of 2008, in which savings deposits rose by USD 229 bn.
FT, 26.03.2009
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"U.S. corporate profits fell by USD 250 billion in the closing months of 2008." WSJ, 27.03.2009
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Strangely, this amount matches the amount poured by retail investors into savings accounts during the first quarter of 2009.
Investments Office, 27.03.2009 , Ronald Weber
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Chasing paper tigers
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Beware the rallying bear. In January 1998, when Asian markets had halved from their July 1997 peak, flows into regional funds also turned positive (...). But those who got in then lost about a third of their money before markets finally bottomed in early September.
FT,24.03.2009
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Treasurys: good place to park?
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Americans will certainly boost their saving rate, from less than zero in the frothiest days of the housing boom to as much as 10% of disposable income by the end of 2010, according to some estimates. That would amount to roughly USD 1 trillion in excess cash...
WSJ, 23.03.2009
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...on gold and government bonds
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CNBC, 02.03.2009 , Hugh Hendry, Chief Investment Officer at Eclectica
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Credit, Innovation, Creative Destruction and the benefits of Disequilibrium: A Schumpeterian view of the economy
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Schumpeter also warned against trying to eliminate business cycles, and he attacked the policy of public bailouts of old-growth industries, a point that current politicians, with their quasi-religious belief in Keynesian economics, should take note.
Investments Office, 22.02.2009 , Ronald Weber
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Ecology for bankers
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There is common ground in analysing financial systems and ecosystems, especially in the need to identify
conditions that dispose a system to be knocked from seeming stability into another, less happy state.
Nature, Vol 451|21 February 2008 , Robert M. May, Simon A. Levin and George Sugihara
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