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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

Treasurys: good place to park?
Americans will certainly boost their saving rate, from less than zero in the frothiest days of the housing boom to as much as 10% of disposable income by the end of 2010, according to some estimates. That would amount to roughly USD 1 trillion in excess cash...

 

"Treasury holdings of U:S. households and nonprofit organizations fell from USD 914.25 billion, or 2.6% of total household assets, in the first quarter of 1997, to USD 273.2 billion, or just 0.4% of assets, in the fourth quarter of 2008.

...

 

As a share of household assets, Treasury securities mightn't return to their peaks of more than 5%, set in the 1950s. But they might well get back to at least the 2% level of the early 1990s...

...

 

Returning to that share could translate into USD 1.2 trillion in extra Treasury demand trough 2011...

The extra Treasury demand would dwarf the USD 727 billion in Treasurys held by China at the end of 2008."

 

 

 

 

-WSJ, 23.03.2009

24.03.2009


 

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