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Farmland Values and Credit Conditions
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"The annual growth in agricultural land values was 12 percent in 2010 for the Seventh Federal Reserve District—the second-largest increase in the past 30 years."
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago , The Agricultural Newsletter, Number 1951 February 2011
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Why has Currency Volatility Jumped?
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"The fiscal lesson from the nineteenth century was the high frequency of debt defaults. Even the USA defaulted on its European borrowings. (...) The other feature evident today that parallels the 1930s is heightened paper currency volatility."
Crossborder Capital, January 2011
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Serial defaults, serial profits: Returns to sovereign lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566–1600
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Philip II of Spain accumulated debts equivalent to 60% of GDP. He also defaulted four times on his short-term loans, thus becoming the first serial defaulter in history.
Mauricio Drelichman, Hans-Joachim Voth , Explorations in Economic History, Volume 48, Issue 1, pp. 1-150 (January 2011)
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There Are No Policy Remedies for Debt Deflation
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My greatest complaint however is that the Fed is producing a plutocracy by demonstrating that they are willing to go to alllengths to prevent a market inpired liquidation of the economy’s bad debts. This is what happened in Weimar Germany.
The Eclectica Fund , Manager Commentary, December 2010
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O Canada!
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By the 1990s, Canada had also become one of the developed world’s most socialized economies, with the government accounting for 53% of the country’s GDP. Economic growth was stagnating while debt levels were inexorably
and dangerously mounting.
Evergreen Capital Management, LLC, 18.10.2010 , David Hay, Chief Investment Officer
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We can't inflate our way out
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"... nearly half of Federal outlays are linked to inflation, meaning that increments to debt would rise with inflation."
Morgan Stanley, US Economics , Richard Berner, February 19, 2010
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Longer Days, Fewer Weekends
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Interes rate cycle symmetry ?
Federal Reserve, September 25, 2009 , Speech by Governor Kevin Warsh
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China's Credit Bubble
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China's credit policy has striking similarities to Japan in the late 1980s!
FT, July 9 2009 , Richard McGregor
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A V-Shaped Recovery in Profits
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"In a recent meeting, a client labelled the recession the “first SAP recession”."
Gavekal , GaveKal Platform Company Fund Newsletter: June 2009
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The Geography of Recession
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To understand how place shapes economics, we need to take a giant step back from the gloom and doom of the current moment and examine the long-term picture of why different regions follow different economic paths.
Stratfor , June 2, 2009
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