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So Far, This Time Is Different
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"The cycle in developed economies has proved, so far, to be different from cycles in the past 50 years.
That hints that those other cycles may not be a very useful guide for what lies ahead. In particular, this cycle may end differently."
Morgan Stanley Research Asia/pacific , Downunder Daily, June 10, 2011
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It’s OK to Admit You’re a Macro Investor
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"...portfolios contain less stock-specific risk than you
think."
Morgan Stanley Research , US Equity Strategy, June 19, 2011
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Bubble Trouble: Can a Law Describe Bubbles and Crashes in Financial Markets?
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When a stock market rises unsustainably, it can create a financial bubble that sooner or later will burst.
Tobias Preis and H Eugene Stanley examine whether concepts from physics can be used to create a
law describing exactly how such crashes occur.
Physics World 24[5], 29-32 (May 2011). , H. Eugene Stanley
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Operation Twist and the Effect of Large-Scale Asset Purchases
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The Federal Reserve's current large-scale asset purchase program, dubbed "QE2," has a precedent in a 1961 initiative by the Kennedy Administration and the Federal Reserve known as "Operation Twist."
Titan Alon and Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco , Economic Letter, 2011-13 April 25, 2011
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..on monetary inflation
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Quote
Crossborder Capital, October 2011
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Keynes' views on inflation,
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taken from his Tract on Monteary Reform of December 1923
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Hedge Funds, Talent and Luck
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Excerpt
How I Became a Quant: Insights from 25 of Wall Street's Elite , Wiley, John & Sons, July 2007 , Richard Lindsey, Barry Schachter
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Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever
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The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value. We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.
Jeremy Grantham , GMO Quarterly Letter, April 2011
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Inflation and Gold, hedging the unexpected?
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Whilst Gold clearly does a better job of hedging inflation surprises over a 5-year horizon, the ability of Gold to hedge is partial at best and the available evidence suggests that the Gold price, in itself, is also a very poor predictor of future inflation trends.
Lombard Odier , Investment Strategy Group, April 7, 2011
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Are Large-Scale Asset Purchases Fueling the Rise in Commodity Prices?
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"...daily data indicate that Federal Reserve announcements of large-scale asset purchases tended to lower commodity prices even as long-term interest rates and the value of the dollar declined."
Reuven Glick and Sylvain Leduc, Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco , Economic Letter, 2011-10 April 4, 2011
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