Capital Markets

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Selecting relevant market observations

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Capital Markets

Current Observations on Asset Classes

articles 141-150 / 195		«	page 15 of 20	»

Chasing paper tigers

Beware the rallying bear. In January 1998, when Asian markets had halved from their July 1997 peak, flows into regional funds also turned positive (...). But those who got in then lost about a third of their money before markets finally bottomed in early September.
FT,24.03.2009

Treasurys: good place to park?

Americans will certainly boost their saving rate, from less than zero in the frothiest days of the housing boom to as much as 10% of disposable income by the end of 2010, according to some estimates. That would amount to roughly USD 1 trillion in excess cash...
WSJ, 23.03.2009

Models

"This article analyzes the methodology of modeling in the physical sciences and in finance."
Financial Analysts Journal, January/February 2009, Vol. 65, No. 1: 28-33 , Emanuel Derman

Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?

Data learned from personal experience has a greater influence on personal decisions than knowledge obtained from books or study, consistent with the notion of Depression Babies. The literature also suggests that, when learning from personal experience, recent events tend to get disproportionate weight. Low-probability events are under-weighted until they occur, and over-weighted once they occur
Working Paper, August 2007 , Ulrike Malmendier, Stefan Nagel

The credit crunch according to Soros

Soros sees the current crisis as a real-life illustration of reflexivity. Markets did not reflect an objective “truth”. Rather, the beliefs of market participants...
FT, January 30 2009 , Chrystia Freeland

So Bad, It’s Good?

Plans for a government-run “bad bank” stoked financial shares today, but the targeted assets aren’t nearly as bad as people think.
Fisher Investment Market Minder, 1/29/2009 , Fisher Investments Editorial Staff

Where Dragons Lurk

" playing the reversion to any mean-in valuation, stock-bond relationships etc. -- that covers only the post-1990, or post-'82, period won't be nearly the high-probability bet it used to be"
Barron's December 29, 2008 , Michael Santoli

The Worst Predictions About 2008

"Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008. Savor them -- a crop like this doesn't come along every year."
Business Week, December 24, 2008 , Peter Coy

"Fairfield Greenwich Group's due diligence process is deeper and broader than a typical Fund of Funds, resembling that of an asset management company acquiring another asset manager, rather than a passive investor entering a disposable investment."

Statement to be read on Fairfield Greenwich Group Website. The same firm ended up having $7.5 billion in investments connected to Mr. Madoff's ponzi scheme , slightly more than half of its total assets!
Investments Office, 14.12.2008 , Ronald Weber

Thoughts on Current-Accounts Myths and some Interesting Views on the USD

"Capital-surplus countries ironically need more stimulus. I think that the rapidly decelerating export growth from Asia is one of the most important current macro trends. (1) There is a popular notion that it is the capital-deficit (C/A deficit) countries like the US and the UK that need more stimulus, when in fact the capital-surplus countries like Germany and Japan (and Korea) that have prospered on the back of strong global demand may see the harshest decline in their economic activities."
Morgan Stanley, Currency Economics, My Thoughts on Currencies, December 1, 2008 , Stephen Jen