Investment Thoughts

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Investment Thoughts

Non-Linear Observations on Financial Markets and the Economy

articles 591-600 / 673		«	page 60 of 68	»

The 1929 Stock Market: Irving Fisher Was Right

Many stock market analysts think that in 1929, at the time of the crash, stocks were overvalued. Irving Fisher argued just before the crash that fundamentals were strong and the stock market was undervalued.
Minneapolis Fed, Staff Report 294 (Revised December 2003) , Ellen R. McGrattan and Edward C. Prescott

Pop Internationalism

"Pop internationalists" -- people who speak impressively about international trade while ignoring basic economics and misusing economic figures are the target of this collection of Paul Krugman's essays. In the clear, readable, entertaining style, Krugman explains what real economic analysis is. He discusses economic terms and measurements, like "value-added" and GDP, in simple language so that readers can understand how pop internationalists distort, and sometimes contradict, the most basic truths about world trade.
MIT Press, March 1996 , Paul R. Krugman

Swarm theory and the power of the collective

I have always held a particular fascination at the way in which nature organizes itself or, more specifically, the way in which certain organisms when grouped together behave in a perfectly harmonious and coordinated manner, almost giving the impression of existence as a single entity. Swarming, by the way, refers to the coordinated behavior of an aggregation of creatures such as fish, insects, birds or microorganisms.
Lobnek Wealth Management , Altug Ulkumen

Abrupt market weakness, dispersion and transition

Abrupt market weakness is generally the result of low risk premiums being pressed higher. There need not be any collapse in earnings for a deep market decline to occur.
Hussmann Funds, July 2007 , John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Tastes of Paradise: A Social History of Spices, Stimulants, and Intoxicants

The urge to please the palate and stimulate, benumb, or pleasure the senses arose at the dawn of the modern age to dovetail with the needs of the rising merchant class and the capitalism it spawned.
Vintage Books, July 1993 , Wolfgang Schivelbusch

Japan's creative monetary policy tool to re-inflate and force consumption

Japan (or the BoJ) seems to have found a new original way to create inflation and stimulate consumption at the same time: by taking Milton Friedman at his words and droping money off the sky!
Investments Office, July 2007 , Ronald Weber

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Just as coincidence can be confused with causality, so the lucky idiot can be confused with the skilled investor. The realities of randomness and probability almost guarantee that, out of a large pool of random investors, a Warren Buffett will emerge just by luck. ©2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Random House Publishing Group, August 2005 , Nassim Nicholas Taleb

USD diversification fallacy and the end of the home bias

US real money managers, not Asian central banks, are the biggest dollar diversifiers and have been steadily diversifying out of the US since 2003.
Morgan Stanley, 20 July 2007 , Stephen Jen

Bank runs, information and contagion in the panic of 1893

Explorations in Economic History, Volume 44, Issue 3, July 2007, Pages 411-431 , Brandon Dupon

Development, Geography, and Economic Theory

Why do certain ideas gain currency in economics while others fall by the wayside? Paul Krugman argues that the unwillingness of mainstream economists to think about what they could not formalize led them to ignore ideas that turn out, in retrospect, to have been very good ones.
MIT Press, August 1997 , Paul Krugman