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More thoughts on deleveraging and the Yen
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one pattern that is remarkably consistant since 18 months is the YEN/USD - equity markets correlation, though it’s difficult to determine how the causation works. Nowadays the strong Yen screams louder than ever that someone out there is “deleveraging” on a massive scale.
Investments Office, 11.11.2007 , Ronald Weber
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Greenspan's Market Forecasts Track Record
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Remember Mr. Greenspan’s 1996 irrational exuberance speech? Against his
warnings, US equities kept on a tear, which left too many active managers behind.
Incidentally, Mr Greenspan’s track record on calls on his own market is spotty at
best, so it is a wonder that anyone should wish to listen to him on a market about
which he most likely knows little.
GaveKal
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Technological innovation and real investment booms and busts
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Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 85, Issue 3, September 2007, Pages 735-754 , Peter DeMarzo, Ron Kaniel and Ilan Kremer
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More Thoughts on The Black Swan
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The Black Swan, Mediocristan versus Extremistan, When "Because" Isn't Enough, Gliding Into Disorder
Thoughts from the Frontline, September 14, 2007 , John Mauldin
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Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here
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A milestone speech that defined monetary policy for the past five years and made clear that the Fed can use "non-traditional" instruments to achieve its objectives.
The Federal Reserve Board, November 21, 2002 , Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
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Empire Made Me: An Englishman Adrift in Shanghai
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This riveting "biography of a nobody" offers a rare view of empire from the glimpse of everyday life in China and an unvarnished portrait of the colonial experience.
Columbia University Press, November 2003 , Robert A. Bickers
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The Misunderstood Economy: What Counts and how to Count It
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In clear, easy-to-understand language, The Misunderstood Economy explains how economic and social progress is and should be measured, confronting widespread misconceptions about debt and deficit, government spending and taxes, unemployment and inflation, foreign investment, and foreign trade.
Harvard Business School Publishing, May 1995 , Robert Eisner, Eisner
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How George Soros Knows What he Knows: Towards a General Theory of Reflexivity
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In its traditional formulation as an explanatory principle, reflexivity means that any
object of thought contains in itself the thinking activity that generates it.
Flavia Cymbalista, Ph.D.
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Poverty Trend in the U.S.
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A very well described article from the Minneapolis Fed about poverty in the U.S. The issue is actually a more complex one than is commonly assumed.
Minneapolis Fed , Ronald A. Wirtz
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Expensed and Sweat Equity
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According to the author, a siginficant amount of business investment is not included in national accounts. Some of the unaccounted investment is "Sweat". Sweat investment is financed by workers-owners who allocate time to their business and receive compensation at less than their market rate.
Such investments are made with the expectation of realizing capital gains when the business goes public or is sold.
Working Paper, Minneapolis Fed , Ellen R. McGrattan and Edward C. Prescott
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