Investment Thoughts

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Investment Thoughts

Non-Linear Observations on Financial Markets and the Economy

articles 181-190 / 673		«	page 19 of 68	»

About Those European Banks

"The sector’s fundamental outlook hasn’t vastly worsened this year, and there are some key differences between now and 2008."
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, February 12th 2016 , Elisabeth Dellinger

Are negative policy rates less than nothing?

"The temptation for negative rates is that many central banks’ traditional tools have been exhausted and so there is a grasp for alternatives. But reality is not always symmetric and just because negative rates are possible does not mean they are a valid policy option."
FX Market Voice, Thomson Reuters, February 2016 , Ron Leven, PhD

Whip Deflation Now

"The funny thing is, it is possible that deflation has already been whipped. We are starting to see signs of inflation in the pipeline."
Mauldin Economics, The 10th Man, February 11th 2016 , Jared Dillian

Biddle’s Bank

Between 1816 and 1828 the Second Bank grew in stature and importance, so much so that it was considered an essential agency of the government. Biddle, as the head of the Second Bank, developed the concept of central banking.
Global Financial Data, February 2016 , Joshua Silverman

Bank Shares Selloff: Canaries Dying in the Coal Mine?

"The questions in the current context of weakness in both bank stocks and credit spreads then become: Are the canaries dying? Is that telling us something about the state of the global economy in coming quarters? And is it time for the miners, i.e., investors, to get out of the mineshaft?"
Oppenheimer Funds, February 09, 2016 , Krishna Memani, CIO

Economists are calm, even if equities are not

The start of 2016 has been a turbulent time in the world’s equity markets. The world’s economies have been far less volatile. Once again, economics and markets seem to be moving in different directions.
UBS, January 2016 , Global Economist, Paul Donovan

When Stocks Crash and Easy Money Doesn't Help

"Though central bankers and talking heads on television speak about monetary policy as if it has a large and predictable impact on the real economy, decades of evidence underscore a weak and unreliable cause-and-effect relationship between the policy tools of the Fed and the targets (inflation, unemployment) that the Fed hopes to affect."
Hussmann Funds, February 8, 2016 , John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Bristlecone Pines and Markets

Bristlecone Pines do very well where most other plants cannot even grow. What would be the equivalent in today's markets?
InvestmentOffice, February 2016 , Ronald Weber

January Barometer

A scatter plot for the S&P 500 January barometer with data ranging from 1951 to 2016.
Macroquant AG, January 2016 , Dr. Adrian Trapletti

Careful, Mr. Market Has a Bad Temper

"If the Fed tries to keep rates at or near the levels they are currently, it will signal that after so many years of policy accommodation, the U.S. economy is still too fragile to absorb even marginal rate hikes. Such a response would be tantamount to what we – and many others – have been saying for a long time: that the interest rate emperor has no clothes."
TCW, January 15, 2016 , Tad Rivelle