Investment Thoughts

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Investment Thoughts

Non-Linear Observations on Financial Markets and the Economy

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Market Cap/GDP and GDP/Capita

"Governments should encourage the growth of equity markets, because they tend to be associated with economic development. Whether or not they actually cause economic development — or whether the causality works the other way around — is the subject of some debate. What is undeniable, however, is that countries with larger equity markets tend have a higher standard of living."
Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, The Public Wealth of Nations, June 2015 , Andrew Howell, Citi Frontier Markets Equity Strategist

Inflation Alive and Well in the US

We have focused on the theme of the misplaced fear of deflation at Variant Perception frequently over the past 18 months.
Variant Perception, March 2, 2016

Four False Financials Fears

Financials stocks took it on the chin during 2016’s first six weeks, as investors freaked out over banks’ Energy exposure, eurozone banks’ capital ratios and bad loans, and negative interest rates. While these issues have impacted sentiment, in our view, they are overstated or misperceived.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 28th 2016 , Christo Barker

Shanghai’d at Shanghai G20?: The Big Threats to Global Bonds

"there is a strong whiff of gun-smoke from the last G20 meeting in Shanghai (26th-27th February 2016), which may have culminated in this week’s mild FOMC Statement by the US Fed. Is this a new Plaza 2?"
CrossBorder Capital, March 18th 2016 , Michael J. Howell

The Dillian Loop

"Interventionism is always praised after the fact. Nobody ever says doing nothing did something."
Mauldin Economics, The 10th Man, March 10th 2016 , Jared Dillian

A cascade of change?

Investors continue to weigh whether the most recent stock market rally signals the end of a correction or whether it simply represents a temporary respite from an unfolding bear market? However, forthcoming changes in the financial markets are likely much more dramatic than simply a stock market in search of a bottom.
Wells Capital Management, Inc., March 9th 2016 , James W. Paulsen, Ph.D

Low-volatility evidence dating back to 1873

As new historical databases are opening up, there are great opportunities for out-of-sample tests of market anomalies. Research shows that the volatility effect also existed in the 19th century.
Robeco, February 15, 2016 , David Blitz, PhD, Pim van Vliet, PhD

UK policy rate expectations

Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting, February 12, 2016

The Collapse In Global Trade Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

The value of world trade fell in 2015 for the first time since the crisis. However, this reversal was not in trade, but in the dollar price of goods sold for export abroad.
Fathom Consulting, Chart Of The Week, February 29, 2016

The Panic of 1792

The first attempt at a stock corner in the United States came at the birth of the American stock market, occurring even before the New York Stock Exchange had been established.
Global Financial Data, February 28th 2016 , Dr. Brian Taylor