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How George Soros Knows What he Knows: Towards a General Theory of Reflexivity
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In its traditional formulation as an explanatory principle, reflexivity means that any
object of thought contains in itself the thinking activity that generates it.
Flavia Cymbalista, Ph.D.
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Abrupt market weakness, dispersion and transition
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Abrupt market weakness is generally the result of low risk premiums being pressed higher. There need not be any collapse in earnings for a deep market decline to occur.
Hussmann Funds, July 2007 , John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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Just as coincidence can be confused with causality, so the lucky idiot can be confused with the skilled investor. The realities of randomness and probability almost guarantee that, out of a large pool of random investors, a Warren Buffett will emerge just by luck. ©2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Random House Publishing Group, August 2005 , Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Tweedy, Browne Company: Client Letters from 1998 and 1999
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"In a year like 1998, the overall performance of an index is not indicative of the performance of stocks in general."
Tweedy, Browne Company
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Got any cash?
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Interesting observations on early signs of little cracks in the system....
Morgan Stanley
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On FIX, BIX and VIX!
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The fall in the price of risk might be because the demand for risk has jumped, but equally it could be because the supply of risk has dropped.
Crossborder Capital , Michael Howell
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Blackstone Fashion Week: Signs of Complacency?
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I hate to spoil the mood, but the familiar mix flavour of Wall St. and fun asthetics smells like troubles ahead!
Investments Office , Ronald Weber
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Japan as a Bond-Hedge?
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After more than ten years of happy union, an intriguing correlation between the US 10 years government bonds yield and the Nikkei 225 equity index seems to have come to an end.
Ronald Weber
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More on Bubbles and How to Fool the "Volk"!
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Deutsche-Telekom: Reports from a couple of respectable houses around the time of the peak.
Carvaggio
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So Much for Earnings and VaR
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"The marketplace, Skilling testified, always knew what trading risks Enron was taking on because the company published a passage on its Value at Risk"
Fortune
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