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"Most of the 2013 crop inputs have been paid and they (farmers) still have low operating loan balances. But there is a group of young farmers that have only seen the "buy today because it will be higher tomorrow" and they are accumulating some high debt totals. If asset values cycle down, they could be put in a difficult financial situation with a resulting high debt ratio and large debt service requirements. The recipe for lower land values will be lower grain prices, meaning lower net income to service those debt requirements. Very similar to my early lending years of the early 1980s."
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