Investment Thoughts

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Investment Thoughts

Non-Linear Observations on Financial Markets and the Economy

articles 81-90 / 673		«	page 9 of 68	»

Seismic waves

Seismic waves are waves of energy that travel through the Earth's layers. What would be the equivalent in today's markets?
Investment Office, September 2018

The Oxymoron of World Trade

Oxymorons are powerful combinations of contradictory meanings. We encounter oxymorons in every human form of expression attempting a description of reality, whether it be in works of tragedy (“fearful bravery” in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar), in our daily lives (work that is “almost done”), or even in the projected future of human societies (“artificial intelligence”).
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, September 2018 , Didier Darcet

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Economic Letter, August 27, 2018 , Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens

Consumers Response More to negative News than Positive Info

"The laboratory provides insight into how cognitively taxing it can become for people exposed to changes in the economic landscape to acquire and process information."
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economic Letter, Volume 13, Number 7, May 2018 , Antonella Tutino

Gold in Turkish Lira (TRY)

Chart of the Month
1875 CIO Office, Current Views, August 2018 , 1875 Finance

General Electric: The Fallen Giant

"General Electric’s decline has been steady during the 21st century. In 2000, GE’s market cap was over $500 billion and as recently as 2005, General Electric was the largest company in the world. Since then, GE has lost over $400 billion in market cap, and today, GE doesn’t even make the top 50 in the world."
Global Financial Data, 22 June 2018 , Dr. Brian Taylor

Neurosis Is Killing Your Returns!

Short-term volatility is the psychological price investors pay to achieve stocks’ high historical long-term returns.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 14/06/2018 , Michael Hanson

Memory Sticks!

Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, June 2018 , Didier Darcet

A monopoly on liquidity

"The board game Monopoly® was originally invented by Elizabeth Magie, under the name “The Landlord’s Game”, as a means of demonstrating the evils of rentier capitalism. Originally, there were two sets of rules — essentially, socialism (where the rewards for development were shared by all) and capitalism (where the rewards accrue to the monopolist, who crushes all opponents) — the purpose being to show the moral superiority of the first set."
Fathom Consulting, Thank Fathom it's Friday, 16 March 2018 , Erik Britton

The Russian Stock Market Before the Revolution

"Russian stocks advanced more in price than American stocks between 1864 and 1914, but American companies paid larger dividends. Price and dividends offset each other and during that 45-year period, the two stock markets provided approximately equal returns."
Global Financial Data, 21 March 2018 , Dr. Brian Taylor