Investment Thoughts

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Investment Thoughts

Non-Linear Observations on Financial Markets and the Economy

articles 531-540 / 673		«	page 54 of 68	»

The Making of an Investment Banker: Stock Market Shocks, Career Choice, and Lifetime Income

The Journal of Finance, Volume 63 Issue 6 (December 2008) , PAUL OYER

Chronicle of a decline foretold

Excellent summary about the great turn of events in 2008 that may have, above all, benefited the U.S: "Here was the irony at the heart of the crisis. In all kinds of ways, the Great Repression had "Made in America" stamped all over it. Yet its effects were more severe in the rest of the world than in the US. And, as a consequence, the US managed to retain its "safe haven" status. The worse things got elsewhere, the more readily investors bought Treasuries and held dollars."
FT, December 27 2008 , Niall Ferguson

The Worst Predictions About 2008

"Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008. Savor them -- a crop like this doesn't come along every year."
Business Week, December 24, 2008 , Peter Coy

America’s Lost Decade?

The Fed’s recent rate cut and announced policy of quantitative easing is causing some to compare the US now to Japan in the 1990s—we’re not so sure.
Fisher Investments Market Minder, 19/12/2008 , Fisher Investments Editorial Staff

"Fairfield Greenwich Group's due diligence process is deeper and broader than a typical Fund of Funds, resembling that of an asset management company acquiring another asset manager, rather than a passive investor entering a disposable investment."

Statement to be read on Fairfield Greenwich Group Website. The same firm ended up having $7.5 billion in investments connected to Mr. Madoff's ponzi scheme , slightly more than half of its total assets!
Investments Office, 14.12.2008 , Ronald Weber

As the World gets bigger, it seemingly becomes ever more volatile.

Is a Global economy inherently more unstable? Not per se, but the truth is that as it gets bigger and richer, the World becomes more financial.
Crossborder Capital, December 2008

Turning on the Money Taps: Surging Liquidity Supply Meets a Massive Jump in Cash Demand

There is little question that we are in a Japan-like World of near -zero interest rates and ‘quantitative easing’ of liquidity by Central Banks. A separate question is whether we are also necessarily in a Japan-like World of falling consumer prices, weak economic activity and volatile asset markets? Or worse, a US-like 1930s Depression? We believe neither.
Crossborder Capital, December 2008

The Velocity Factor

When most of us think of the velocity of money, we think of how fast it goes through our hands. I know at the Mauldin household, with seven kids, it seems like something is always coming up. And with Christmas looming, the velocity, at least in terms of how fast money seems to go out the door, seems faster than normal.
Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter, December 5, 2008 , John Mauldin

Thoughts on Current-Accounts Myths and some Interesting Views on the USD

"Capital-surplus countries ironically need more stimulus. I think that the rapidly decelerating export growth from Asia is one of the most important current macro trends. (1) There is a popular notion that it is the capital-deficit (C/A deficit) countries like the US and the UK that need more stimulus, when in fact the capital-surplus countries like Germany and Japan (and Korea) that have prospered on the back of strong global demand may see the harshest decline in their economic activities."
Morgan Stanley, Currency Economics, My Thoughts on Currencies, December 1, 2008 , Stephen Jen

Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ wasn’t that bad.

"There have been so many references to the ‘Lost Decade’ in Japan. It may be useful to recall how bad the macro conditions were during that period."
Stephen Jen , Morgan Stanley, Currency Economics, My Thoughts on Currencies, December 1, 2008