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   Investment Thoughts - Capital Markets

Signs of Re-flation in Japan:
According to Mizuho, we have seen in recent weeks price hikes for ramen noodles, beer, taxi fares, mayonnaise, white bread and student note books. In most of these cases these are the first price hikes in these items in 17 years!

In addition the Keidanren announced on December 10th through chairman Miterai that Japanese companies with the financials means to do so should hike employee wages.  This is a new development for Keidanren and is highly significant in my view.


The majority of investors still deny that this represents a significant turning point in Japan.  The analysts argues that companies have recently obtained pricing power through significant consolidation of Japanese industry over the past 30 years.  In 1975 the average market share of the top three companies in domestic industries was 55% but had risen to 80% in 2005.  Furthermore the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of market competition averages 2,000-2,500 in Japan which normal indicates an oligopolistic market structure.

 

Mizuho

14.12.2007


 

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