Capital Markets

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Capital Markets

Current Observations on Asset Classes

articles 71-80 / 195		«	page 8 of 20	»

The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

"So far the 21st Century has not been especially kind to equity investors. Yes, markets do bounce back, but often in time frames that defy optimistic expectations."
Advisor Perspectives, April 1, 2016 , Doug Short

NYSE Margin Debt Falls Again: More Confirmation of a Major Market Turning Point Last Year?

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.
Advisor Perspectives, March 31, 2016 , Doug Short

Four False Financials Fears

Financials stocks took it on the chin during 2016’s first six weeks, as investors freaked out over banks’ Energy exposure, eurozone banks’ capital ratios and bad loans, and negative interest rates. While these issues have impacted sentiment, in our view, they are overstated or misperceived.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, March 28th 2016 , Christo Barker

A cascade of change?

Investors continue to weigh whether the most recent stock market rally signals the end of a correction or whether it simply represents a temporary respite from an unfolding bear market? However, forthcoming changes in the financial markets are likely much more dramatic than simply a stock market in search of a bottom.
Wells Capital Management, Inc., March 9th 2016 , James W. Paulsen, Ph.D

Low-volatility evidence dating back to 1873

As new historical databases are opening up, there are great opportunities for out-of-sample tests of market anomalies. Research shows that the volatility effect also existed in the 19th century.
Robeco, February 15, 2016 , David Blitz, PhD, Pim van Vliet, PhD

Whip Deflation Now

"The funny thing is, it is possible that deflation has already been whipped. We are starting to see signs of inflation in the pipeline."
Mauldin Economics, The 10th Man, February 11th 2016 , Jared Dillian

Bank Shares Selloff: Canaries Dying in the Coal Mine?

"The questions in the current context of weakness in both bank stocks and credit spreads then become: Are the canaries dying? Is that telling us something about the state of the global economy in coming quarters? And is it time for the miners, i.e., investors, to get out of the mineshaft?"
Oppenheimer Funds, February 09, 2016 , Krishna Memani, CIO

When Stocks Crash and Easy Money Doesn't Help

"Though central bankers and talking heads on television speak about monetary policy as if it has a large and predictable impact on the real economy, decades of evidence underscore a weak and unreliable cause-and-effect relationship between the policy tools of the Fed and the targets (inflation, unemployment) that the Fed hopes to affect."
Hussmann Funds, February 8, 2016 , John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Careful, Mr. Market Has a Bad Temper

"If the Fed tries to keep rates at or near the levels they are currently, it will signal that after so many years of policy accommodation, the U.S. economy is still too fragile to absorb even marginal rate hikes. Such a response would be tantamount to what we – and many others – have been saying for a long time: that the interest rate emperor has no clothes."
TCW, January 15, 2016 , Tad Rivelle

A Year In Junk

The most important outbreak or story of 2015 had to have been the junk bond reversal. It combined all the major elements of what investors and economic agents are both fearing and, at one point in the past anyway, hoping.
Alhambra Investment Partners, 31.12.2015 , Jeffrey P. Snider