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Financial Market Volatility: Assessing Risk
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Volatility is often cited but seldom quantified for many economic series. Over the years, we have sought to provide a perspective on this concept in many investment decisions. One primary lesson we have learned is that when we provide a context for the concept of volatility, decision making is improved.
Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group, Special Commentary, April 23, 2013 , John E. Silvia, Chief Economist
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Missing/Avoiding the Best & Worst Days of S&P500 from 1993 to 2010
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Assuming that you can avoid the 10 worst days, you will have to do so in a way that does not have you missing the 10 best days. If you manage to avoid all of the worst days, but miss all of the best days too, then your portfolio performance will be close to buy & hold (minus transaction costs).
Pension Partners, LLC, September 2010 , Michael A. Gayed
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Dispelling the myth of a great rotation
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A popular current financial theme (witness Baron’s recent cover piece) is the so-called “great rotation” out of expensive US bonds and into comparatively cheap US equities. We are wary of a simplistic and massive rotation thesis. Why?
Lombard Odier Private Banking , Investment Strategy Bulletin, 07/03/2013
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Shall We Dance?
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"But I remain convinced that investors are accepting historically elevated risks here, and that it is misguided to reach for speculative returns in an overextended market, simply out of repugnance for zero interest rates."
Hussman Funds, February 11, 2013 , John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
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The Murky Economics of Green Technology
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The pattern is a familiar one with emerging industries and technologies.
Investments Office, January 2013
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Do Hedge Funds Really Generate No Alpha?
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The first finding of the analysis is that correlation between the HFRI index and the S&P 500 index passed 90%. The second finding is that HFRI's alpha is now zero.
Insider Monkey, November 22nd 2011 , Meena Krishnametty
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Rare Earth Prices and the Baltic Dry Index post-Bubble
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Anyone remembers the rare earth media hysteria 18 months ago, and how China was supposed to corner the market for these metals? Well, we haven't heard heard much on the topic lately...
Investments Office , November 2012
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What Is That Performance Costing Me?
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In these challenging times a decent performance is increasingly hard to come by - decent meaning somewhere in the range of the average returns that have been produced over a time span of more than 80 years*, and on which a large number of future growth projection models of institutional pension schemes are still based on. This sobering “new normal” environment which is here to stay into the foreseeable future, is pushing investors to seek alternative and usually riskier ways of improving their dismal returns.
Lobnek Wealth Management, November 2012 , Altug Ulkumen, CFA, Independent Contributor
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Buy the fiscal cliff
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Many investors fear the US "fiscal cliff" - that automatic spending cuts and tax hikes starting in January will cause a big recession. No. The fiscal cliff simply won't happen. And fear of a false factor is always bullish.
Interactive Investor, 19/10/2012 , By Ken Fisher
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Bull market 30 years old today
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What does it really mean? Simply, the market and the economy transitioned from funding fixed assets (oil, gold, land) to funding ideas.
August 2012 , Andy Kessler
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