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   Investment Thoughts - Capital Markets

Are New Trends Starting to Emerge?
"amongst Asia ex-Japan't top 100 companies by market capitalization, 84 are finance or commodity related stocks."

" In hindsight, it is fair to say that between 2002 and 2007, top-performing portfolios were mostly built around two themes: the globalization of what we have come to call the "financial revolution" and the growing demand, especially for energy and commodities, of emerging markets."

(...)

 

 

"The current state of the markets reminds us that there are two key challenges the world has to face. There is 1) a poor world that needs commodities and consumer goods; and 2) a rich but demographically challenged Western world that needs better drugs and healthcare for its ageing population."

(...)

 

"...the reason for bear markets is to transfer leadership from one set of sectors or countries, to another. (...) And today, the rotational shift within the market seems to point towards the fact that the enxt bull market could well be driven by healthcare."

 

 

 

 

GaveKal, July 2008

15.07.2008


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield