"To know wheter there is "more money than fools", we like to look at central bank reserves held at the Fed for foreign central banks. Indeed, when there is "too much money" in the system, the central banks outside of the US end up mopping up the excess cash and depositing it at the Fed. By the same token, when there is not enough money in the system, the central banks are forced to draw down the reserves they hold at the Fed. In such times, you know that you have "more fools than money" and that risk in portfolios should be reduced."